January 2008 Archives

I sold 10 contracts of my Feb 44 calls (QQQBR) this morning at $2.22. I tried to get out of them at the open but they quickly went from an open of $2.60 down to the price I was able to get a fill at. I still grabbed a profit of over $600 or 38% on the trade.

I'm still holding 10 contracts of the Feb 46 calls and may wait till Monday to exit this position unless we get a nice run up this afternoon into the close, then I will close them then.

Stock futures are pointing to a higher open this morning. I may take this opportunity to take my profits on my Feb 44 Calls and the Feb 46 Calls should go green today.

S&P 500 (MAR) +11.50  | Nasdaq (MAR) +23.75  | Dow (MAR) +88 

I still feel that the general direction of the market is still heading down, but as a swing trader I can take advantage of the weekly up and down moves that happen in the general trend. The current weekly trend should be coming to a close soon as the Q's price is getting towards the top of my trend channel. This is when I want to take my profits. It can easily extend beyond that and go further to the upside, but I don't want to risk it turning right back down again. The problem with the current market (and down trends in general) is that you will find sharp declines then a slow building backup. For example on Tuesday of this week we had a sharp 1 day gap down to the lower trend channel line, then over the next couple of days it slowly built back up to the top of the trend channel. It could go farther up and extend (or move) the trend channel higher. But its best not to be greedy.

Stock futures are pointing to open higher this morning.

S&P 500 (MAR) +6.25  | Nasdaq (MAR) +5.75  | Dow (MAR) +34 

Q pivots for today are:

R2	R1	Pivot	S1	S2
45.80	44.91	43.26	42.37	40.72

I have been very busy at work the last couple of days and haven't had much of a chance to day trade. But I do have 2 swing positions open (plus a sneaky on a AAPL call from yesterday.)

Here are my open positions:
Open Date    Desc                Contracts  Entry    Last        Cost       Mkt Value       GL       GL%
1/18/2008    QQQQ Feb 46 Call    10    $1.20    $0.76    $1,200.00    $760.00    -$440.00    -36.67%
1/22/2008    QQQQ Feb 44 Call    10    $1.60    $1.74    $1,600.00    $1,740.00    $140.00    8.75%
1/23/2008    AAPL Feb 140 Call    1    $7.50    $7.80    $750.00    $780.00    $30.00    4.00%

The markets are heading into a huge gap down this morning as the stock markets overseas have tumbled across the board. Stock futures are down the biggest I have ever seen.

S&P 500 (MAR) -66.50  | Nasdaq (MAR) -81.50  | Dow (MAR) -542 

My open long calls will probably open worthless. The Q's are looking to open down. Here is a pre-market snapshot of trading. QQQQ: 43.30 2.05 (4.52%)

The positive spin for this is I only had 10 contracts. I also went to almost 100% cash in all my other brokerage accounts several weeks ago. So this huge decline will not hurt me that much.

There is money to be made with volatile swings like this. But I may just sit this one out.

Bought 10 of QQQBT at $1.20 getting ready for next week. Will try to pick up 10 more at a lower price before close.

Stock futures are pointing to a higher open from here. My short term indicators are saying that we are going to be heading up for the next week or so. I may enter a long position sometime today. I want to see how we open and trade this morning.

S&P 500 (MAR) +14.50  | Nasdaq (MAR) +20.25  | Dow (MAR) +119 

Q piviots

R2	R1	Pivot	S1	S2
47.10	46.24	45.72	44.86	44.34

Volume maybe light today because of a snow storm on the east coast and we are also heading into a 3 day weekend. Jan options expire today which usually increases volume, so who knows what is going to happen.

The Q's went right up and filled the gap and I was up over $500 in profit. I tried to enter a sell order at that level and it quickly went down. I didn't get my fill fast enough to keep up with the order flow.

I ended up getting stopped out at $1.11 with a $500 loss or 8%.

I entered a day trade to catch the move up to fill the gap this morning. The market gapped down big and has run up since the open. I bought 50 calls of QQQBU at a price of $1.21. My stop will be $1.15.

Intel reports that they missed earnings yesterday by 2 cents. The stock is currently down over 12% pre-market. The futures are also down sharply as well.

S&P 500 (MAR) -13.25  | Nasdaq (MAR) -28.25  | Dow (MAR) -106 

The Q piviots for today are:

R2	R1	Pivot	S1	S2
47.98	47.27	46.81	46.10	45.64

I made some good money yesterday with my puts. If I would have stayed in them, I would have made even more. But with the market acting so psycho recently I took what I could with the information I had. There will be a very big gap down this morning. There maybe an opportunity to either ride a long call up if we try to close the gap intraday, or to get back into a short position with some puts if we get a little upwards movement then start to head back down again. Today will be an interesting day for traders that are nimble. I probably will not have the time to follow all the action today so I may just stay out.

My Q puts have traded nicely today and I need to step away from my trading platform for the rest of the day. So I decided to book my profits before the evaporate.

I sold my Feb 46 puts QQQNT at $1.15 for a profit of $300 and a gain of 35%. Not bad for a day trade.

I entered some put positions near the close of the market yesterday in anticipation of some downside this morning. It looks like we will be having a big gap down today. I may end up closing my position at the open to take a quick gain. I'm still not confident the market has formed a steady trend that can last a couple of days. That is what I need to be profitable as a swing trader.

The futures this morning are as follows:
S&P 500 (MAR) -10.50  | Nasdaq (MAR) -14.00  | Dow (MAR) -68 

The Q piviots today are:

R2	R1	Pivot	S1	S2
48.43	48.15	47.73	47.45	47.03

The Q's are looking very over bought as we head into the close. I bought 10 contracts of QQQNT at $0.85 in anticipation of trading tomorrow down.

My stop for this trade is $0.75.

IBM has announced better than expected earnings this morning and stock futures are sharply higher. We look to open up green today.

S&P 500 (MAR) +8.00  | Nasdaq (MAR) +17.50  | Dow (MAR) +85 

The Q pivots for today are:

R2	R1	Pivot	S1	S2
48.24	47.64	47.17	46.57	46.10

I start the day without any open positions and may continue to day trade the moves today.

I was stopped out of my Jan 48 calls. I had a mental stop at $0.50 but ended up with a fill at $0.48. This represented a loss of $200 or 17%.

I'm done for the day, the trading today is just too sidways with no defined trend for day trading. So I'm taking the rest of the trading day off.

As I type this the Q's have accelerated to the downside and they broke the low of the day, the contracts I just sold are now at $0.44.  See, that is why I need to follow my stops.

I'm now playing an intraday bounce off the support level. I just bought 20 contracts of QQQAV for a price of $0.58. My stop will be $0.50.

I would love to see the Q's fill this mornings gap from here and reach back into the $48 level. That should be a double on these call contracts.

I sold my 10 contracts after holding them for about an hour. The intraday trading is not acting as fast I wanted and the Q's slowly went down to S1 of $47.39. They are finding some support at this level and wanted to take what I could from this trade.

I sold my puts at $1.37 for a gain of $80 or 6%.

I'm going short on the open for a day trade. I bought 10 contracts of QQQNU Feb 47 puts at $1.29. My stop will be $1.23.

This is for a day trade and I will most likely reverse and go long at S1 of $47.39.

The markets are set to open lower today. This maybe another gap down and a chance to ride it back up through out the day today. That worked out well for me yesterday. However there is plenty of negative earnings news in the Financial sector today. So this maybe just a down day all day long. I will see how the open goes and decide if I want to follow any intraday trends I see for day trades. I may also just sit it out for today.

S&P 500 (MAR) -12.25  | Nasdaq (MAR) -12.75  | Dow (MAR) -92 

QQQQ Pivots for today are as follows:

R2	R1	Pivot	S1	S2
49.02	48.51	47.90	47.39	46.78

Looking at the 15 day chart I typically use we may see some additional upside on the Q's to the mid-49 level over the next couple of days, but the trend is not definitive. It maybe just best to ride it out for a while until something emerges.



I still see the short term trend on the daily chart as pointing down. The weekly chart is still maintaining a long term trend of heading higher.

We have a nice strong move into the close and I sold my 48 Q calls near the high of the day. A nice quick money maker for the day. Right now I'm 100% cash in my Q trading account.

Open Date    Ticker      Desc        Contracts    Entry    Last    Cost          Mkt Value    GL    GL%
1/10/2008    QQQAV    JAN 48 Call    10        $0.60    $1.00    $600.00    $1,000.00    $400.00    66.67%

I sold my contracts at a loss. We had a nice move up today, but with them expiring next week I'm taking as much back as I can get. I still hold the 48 calls I bought today with a profit.

Open Date    Ticker    Desc    Contracts    Entry    Last    Cost    Mkt Value    GL    GL%
1/4/2008    QQQAX    JAN 50 Call    10    $0.65    $0.14    $650.00    $140.00    -$510.00   -78.46%
1/8/2008    QQQAX    JAN 50 Call    20    $0.33    $0.14    $660.00    $280.00    -$380.00    -57.58%

I just bought 10 contracts of QQQQ Jan 48 calls at a cost of $0.60. My stop will be $0.50. This is just for a quick day trade. I expect the marketing to fill this gap from the open and will close for a profit when Q's reach $47.95.

The Q's had a strong move to the upside yesterday around 2. I was able to place a nice day trade to make some quick cash to take advantage of this move. The 10 call contracts I still hold with a strike of 50 are still very much under water (down over 70%.) The intermediate trend is still pointing down, so I'm not sure how much I can gain back on these contracts.

Pre-market futures are showing that we will be seeing a negative start.

S&P 500 (MAR) -4.00  | Nasdaq (MAR) -6.75  | Dow (MAR) -33 

On the economic calendar we have Jobless Claims at 8:30 today so the futures picture may change after the results are announced in about an hour.

The floor pivots for today are as follows:

R2	R1	Pivot	S1	S2
48.95	48.44	47.45	46.94	45.95

Update at 9AM: Jobless claims were less than expected, that could give the Fed a reason not to cut rates as much as people want. Helicopter Ben talks at 1 today, so it maybe a volatile ride today. The good news is volatility is a day traders friend.

Futures are now lower
S&P 500 (MAR) -7.25  | Nasdaq (MAR) -12.00  | Dow (MAR) -55 

A quick day trade for the move today. I sold 10 contracts of QQQQ Jan 74 calls at $1.40. A profit of $450 in about an hour (47% gain.)

I bought 10 contracts of QQQQ JAN 47 Call at a price of $0.95. Placing stop at $0.85.

Here is the pre-market update for today. Futures are set to head higher on the open today. The point at which I sold my 50 contracts yesterday at a loss was almost the exact bottom of the trading yesterday. I'm glad I still kept 10 contracts in. I guess one lesson learned is I had too big of a trade on and cutting it down to 10 contracts was more comforatable to stay in the game. A lesson learned, is to go in lighter next time. Maybe time for a new rule, no more than 10% on any given trade.

S&P 500 (MAR) +12.00  | Nasdaq (MAR) +16.25  | Dow (MAR) +74 

QQQQ Pivot Table

R2	R1	Pivot	S1	S2
49.24	48.71	48.07	47.54	46.90

I sold 50 of my 60 contracts at $0.26 for a loss of $2,450. A tough lesson but a 65% loss is more than enough.

I'm keeping 10 contracts at a cost basis of $0.65 since we are so close to support on the NQ futures.

A big lesson learned. I need to take my stops when I set them. That has always been an issue I have been trying to fix and was one of the reasons for starting this journal. I need to create a plan and stick with it. The sell off on Friday accelerated and took out the the lows of November. I expect to see a rebound rally on Monday and I will cut my losses as much as I can into that rally. The current trend is still heading down. Unless the Fed does some heroic maneuvers, we are going to be seeing lower prices for some time.

Pre-market the futures are pointing to a higher open.

S&P 500 (MAR) +6.75  | Nasdaq (MAR) +6.25  | Dow (MAR) +49 

R2	R1	Pivot	S1	S2
50.43	49.42	48.82	47.81	47.21

Shown below is a 6 month chart, the Q's are currently sitting on the longer term support line in the trend channel and we are in oversold territory. However, we can get lower and more oversold. With contracts that expire in a couple of weeks, I need to take back what I can quickly.

I placed a limit order to buy 10 more contracts of QQQQ JAN 50 Call at $0.65. Looking at the price movement in the actual contracts that price level looks like some good intra-day support.

Wouldn't you know it, right after I placed my order the stock started to go up. I'm not complaining, just recording my thoughts.

I wouldn't be surprised if we make a move back above $49.40 by the end of the trading day today. I would be surprised if we see new low of day.

Update: Well my limit order just got filled. So now I have 60 contracts.

I'm going to give it a try again.

I just purchased 50 contracts of QQQQ JAN 50 Call (QQQAX) at $0.75 for a total of $3,750. I will keep a tight stop on this move as well. I'm willing to give back about 10 cents on the contracts.

I was stopped out already on my QQQQ JAN  50 Call (QQQAX) trade.

Closed the position at $0.80 which represents a $400 loss.

I'm still looking to get long this market, I will watch the Q's the rest of the day and will be looking for some additional support to buy either today or on Monday.

I just bought 50 contracts for QQQQ JAN  50 Call (QQQAX) at a price of $0.88. The total cost basis is $4,450 which represents almost half of my trading funds for this account.

My stop will be the lows of today which is a Q price of $49.53.

I expect this move will take the Q's up to the $51 area sometime next week.

I was hoping to see the Q's fall below $50 before I enter the market. Well the Jobs Report just came out and futures are getting killed.

The futures market sharply drops immediately following disappointing employment data. December nonfarm payrolls grew by 18K, which is lower  from last month's revised reading of 115K.  Economists expected payrolls to increase by 70K, although a recent Dow Jones survey came in it 50K.  The unemployment rate was 5.0% (consensus 4.8%), the prior rate was 4.7%.

S&P 500 (MAR) -10.25  | Nasdaq (MAR) -18.50  | Dow (MAR) -74 

So it does look like we will be touching the bottom of the trend channel and I will start buying down in that area.

This Jobs report will finally give the fed the catalyst to start some aggressive easing on the fed funds rates.

The futures this morning are pointing to a higher open.

The QQQQ Pivots for today are as follows:

R2	R1	Pivot	S1	S2
51.12	50.87	50.51	50.26	49.90

Shown below is the action from yesterday. I feel that the short term trend is ready to point up and I should be opening a long position sometime today. Ideally I would have loved an entry below the $50 level, but it looks like we will not be getting that.

The Q's had 1.5% decline yesterday and I expect them to continue to fall to just under the $50 level. Pre-market the Q's are trading down, the dollar is down against the Euro, and Gold is up almost 3%.

The QQQQ Pivot chart shows that support at $49.89 or $49.34 maybe my entry area to the upside.

R2	R1	Pivot	S1	S2
52.02	51.23	50.68	49.89	49.34

This also corresponds to the lower trendline channel as well from the chart.

Normally I would have puts on the Q's with a move like this. However, since I knew I was not going to be able to watch the markets on a daily basis over the Christmas holiday I didn't open any positions. Seeing the market fall in this particular pattern has me itchy to catch a little bit more of this downside that is coming. But I have to practice patience. I have learned my lesson well that you don't chase a market move. I have greater success if you let the market come to you.

The gap that was created on Friday of last week has just been filled and the Q's have accelerated to the downside in trading this afternoon. I'm still looking to open my first position of the year as a long position under the $50 level. I'm looking for it to hit that lower trend channel line in the next couple of days.

 

I'm starting the year with no current open positions in my Q swing trading account. I have set aside $10,000 for this account and will trade it using my methodology. The way things look right now, I expect to open a call option (Long) on the Q's on either Friday or Monday.

If the QQQQ can get below $50 in that time frame I will be jumping in.

I need to decide on a daily format for the informatation I want to record in my trading journal. I have been using a loose method to record the various indicators I follow, but the purpose of this new website is for me to create a structured version of my trading journal.

Some of the indicators are also proprietary so I will be using my own codes for which each one means.

Here is the information I want to record.

15 Day Chart with Linear Regressing Trend Channels

QQQQ Pivots

R2	R1	Pivot	S1	S2
51.92	51.57	51.39	51.04	50.86

 

	Bias	Date Range
TT Week	DOWN	12/29 - 1/5
TT Month	DOWN	Dec-May
JL Day	UP
JR	DOWN

This is my first post of this website. It is a a New Year and New Methodology for my Q trading account. I will post more detailed information about the purpose of this website in a detailed about post.

In a nutshell I trade put and call options on the QQQQ's as a swing trader. The basic holding time frame is anywhere from 1 day to no more than 5 days with an average of about 3 days.

This website is my own personal trading journal. Rather than recording my notes into a notebook, I figured I may as well record them on this website.