Recently in Pre-Market Outlook Category

I was studying the QQQQ chart this morning and it looks like we are at the top of my trend channel and we also have a bearish cross on the Stochastic as well. I will be looking to load up on puts this morning. I think we will see the Q's somewhere below the $30 level sometime this week.

I'm back from a much needed vacation away from work and the markets. However, whenever I'm away from the markets I loose my feel for where they are heading. So I will be cautious on the next couple of trades so I can back in sync with the markets.

Right now it looks like we are at the lower end of the trend channel and we should be heading higher from here for the next couple of days. I will be looking to enter a call position sometime today to take advantage of this up move.

Currently the pivots on the Q's are as follows:

R2	R1	Pivot	S1	S2
48.84	48.50	48.23	47.89	47.62

The Jobs report came out this morning and the futures market didn't like what is saw. They moved from being in positive territory to a sharp decline in futures prices.

S&P 500 (JUN) -6.50  | Nasdaq (JUN) -9.75  | Dow (JUN) -47 

NQ seems to have shown some support at the 2042 level and are now starting to use that as a base to trade a little higher off these lows.

The pivots for the Q's today are as follows. Pre-market the Q's are sitting right on the pivot number and I would love to see them test S1 sometime today. I still think we will have some support at the $49.90 level and will probably take my profits on my Jun 50 puts if we get that low.

R2	R1	Pivot	S1	S2
51.20	50.88	50.29	49.97	49.38

The Q's have already traded over 1 million shares in pre-market trading and is currently up 15 cents. The upside move from here looks good and the volume this morning is a good sign that we will be heading higher for the next couple of trading days.

The futures this morning are also strong.

S&P 500 (JUN) +3.75  | Nasdaq (JUN) +8.25  | Dow (JUN) +23 

I'm still holding my calls on the Jun 50's and I should get close to break even on my position near the open. Hopefully they will continue higher into profit territory before they get too over bought.

Update at 9AM: The Q's have now traded over 5 million shares pre-market and are now up 30 cents. We have seen this type of pre-market volume for a couple of months.

The markets took another tumble yesterday and the price of Oil continues to cause worry in the markets. I'm again on the wrong side of that move. I'm still holding my calls (which are down about 40% now) because my charts are telling me we are heading higher. I still have several weeks of life left in my June calls, so I'm not too worried. We are still in the longer term uptrend channel and are now just testing the lower end of that channel. I'm already 30% invested and if I had more money I would buy more at this level. However, I don't want to get too over committed if I'm drastically wrong in reading the charts.

Pre-market the futures are pointing to a lower or flat open. The Q's are currently trading flat pre-market on some decent volume of over 2 million shares.

S&P 500 (JUN) -1.00  | Nasdaq (JUN) -4.25  | Dow (JUN) +1 

The pivots to look for on the Q's today are shown below.

R2	R1	Pivot	S1	S2
50.18	49.18	48.60	47.60	47.02

Update at 9AM: Oil just turned around on the futures and is heading lower. The futures are improving for NQ and it just went green. The Q's are now up a quarter percent in pre-market trading.

Oil is now trading above $130 and the markets took a nice dip over the last couple of days. Yesterday I bought some calls on the Q's near the close since several of my indicators flashed a short term trend bottom. I went in heavier than normal (almost 30% of the portfolio), so I will keep a close eye on this trade to make sure to limit any losses.

Pre-market the futures are looking to open weaker this morning. The Q's are trading down about 9 cents.

S&P 500 (JUN) -4.25  | Nasdaq (JUN) -8.75  | Dow (JUN) -32 

A quick look at some of the pre-market movers is SMH (semiconductor ETF) is up almost 2% pre-market, MSFT is up half a percent. So there looks like there is some strength in the tech sector that should help to get these Q's moving up in the right direction.

The Q's hit the $50 mark yesterday and they look to open up above $50 this morning on the open. Pre-market the futures are also pointing to a higher open.

S&P 500 (JUN) +2.75  | Nasdaq (JUN) +1.50  | Dow (JUN) +16 

I'm currently still sitting on the sidelines and I'm looking to see which way I want to swing this. I have been mentioning that I thought the Q's would hit the $50 level sometime in the middle of May. Well that event has come to pass and I think we will see some strong resistance at the 52 week highs of $55.00. 

Right now the Q's are overbought and my tendency is to look for some puts. However, there is some strong buying pressure now, so it is just wait and see time for me right now.

There was very light trading volume yesterday in the Q's and pre-market it looks to be light as well. The Q's are currently down a quarter of a percent in pre-market trading, but there is no conviction on this move since the volume is just not there.

The futures are currently point down as well.

S&P 500 (JUN) -4.25  | Nasdaq (JUN) -3.50  | Dow (JUN) -29 

I currently have puts on the Q's and I hope to close them either today or tomorrow with some gains. I still see potential upside on the Q's and this trade is just a counter trend trade as we re-test support in the $48 level.

Yesterday the Fed made a cut to the Federal Funds rate by 25 basis points. This brings the rate down to 2%. As usual the statement from the Fed was long winded and the markets took some time to try and decide what to do. So at 2:15 the markets rocketed up and down with some wild swings that are always fun to watch. Finally they decided to take them down for the session.




The futures are currently trading up at the moment but we are almost 2 hours from open this morning. So things may change in that time. The Q's are currently trading up slightly in light pre-market volume.

S&P 500 (JUN) +3.00  | Nasdaq (JUN) +3.75  | Dow (JUN) +31 

The market wants to head higher and is providing some additional lessons learned. Right now the futures are pointing to a positive open.

S&P 500 (JUN) +8.75  | Nasdaq (JUN) +10.50  | Dow (JUN) +72 

The Q's are currently trading up 0.21% pre-market and my puts are now down 25% and will be down more at the open. I could have gotten out of the puts a couple of days ago with a nice 30-40% gain, or I could have gotten out yesterday morning at break even. I'm now faced with the decision of, do I take the loss now, or do I wait to see if my indicators are correct? I know that the gaps down below will be filled. The question is, will that fill happen in the next couple of days, or could it be months or years from now? The basic tenant of gaps is they are always filled, but there is never an indication of when that fill will happen.

All of my indicators say we are overbought short term and I think I just need to trust those indicators. Another part of me is also conflicted because I do believe that the general market direction is now pointing higher for the next couple of months and maybe playing these counter trend moves is trying to be too aggressive. Ahh the joys of trading the market.